Ether (ETH) has gained 950% in 2022 and from the look of things, the altcoin has no intention of stopping. This can also exist seen in the ultra-optimistic bets for October's $1.25 billion options death. However, this miracle is non exclusive to Ether bulls.

The right to acquire Ether at a fixed cost in the future does not come at a cheap price. On Sep. iv, the $5,000 call option for Oct. monthly expiry was trading at ETH 0.082 which is equivalent to $320. Unfortunately, for the bulls, these options are now worthless.

Gas fees on Ethereum transactions are withal to a higher place $25 and this will proceed to favor competitor blockchains with their own decentralized finance (DeFi) and nonfungible token (NFT) markets. Even with these high fees, the leading smart contract network nevertheless holds 80% or higher total value locked (TVL) and decentralized exchanges (DEX) volumes.

Ether price at Coinbase in USD. Source: TradingView

The bullish trend that initiated on Sep. 21 has been driving Ether price on a path to break its $iv,380 all-fourth dimension loftier in a couple of weeks.

Furthermore, Ether bulls will also be pleased to know that ETH 2.0's Altair upgrade was successful, with 99% of the nodes upgraded. This is the first upgrade since the Beacon Chain went online in Dec 2022 and the main changes include support for lightweight nodes and increased penalties for validators being offline.

Bulls were too optimistic, but they're still ahead

Based on the bullish expectations surrounding a Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded fund approval, it is now possible to sympathize why bulls placed 55% of their bets at $four,500 or higher. However, every bit the deadline for Oct. 29 death approaches, these call (buy) options quickly lost their value.

The October monthly expiry will be a strength exam for bears because any price above $four,000 means a $205 million or higher profit for the bulls.

Ether options aggregate open up interest for Oct. 29. Source: Bybt

As the in a higher place data shows, bears placed $535 million in bets for Oct. 29's expiry, but information technology appears that they were defenseless by surprise, as 96% of the put (sell) options are likely to become worthless.

In other words, if Ether remains above $4,100 on Fri's 8:00 am UTC expiry, merely $12 million worth of neutral-to-bearish put options volition exist activated.

Bulls have a few reasons to keep Ether price to a higher place $iv,200

Below are the 4 most likely scenarios for the October. 29 decease. The imbalance favoring either side represents the theoretical profit. In other words, depending on the expiry toll, the quantity of phone call (purchase) and put (sell) contracts condign active varies:

  • Between $3,900 and $4,000: 35,100 calls vs. 9,800 puts. The internet result is $100 million favoring the call (bull) instruments.
  • Between $4,000 and $4,200: 54,900 calls vs. 3,600 puts. The net result is $205 1000000 favoring the call (bull) instruments.
  • In a higher place $4,200: 66,300 calls vs. 600 puts. The net result is $275 one thousand thousand favoring the call (balderdash) instruments.

This raw estimate considers phone call options being exclusively used in bullish bets and put options in neutral-to-bearish trades. However, investors might have used a more than complex strategy that typically involves different expiry dates.

Bears need a 7% price correction to reduce their losses

In each scenario, bulls take absolute command of this Oct. 29's expiry and in that location is good reason for them to keep the price above $4,200. On the other hand, bears need a 7% negative movement from $4,270 to sub-$4,000 to avert a loss of $205 million or higher.

All the same, traders must think that during bull runs, the amount of effort a seller needs to pressure level the price is immense and commonly ineffective. Moreover, derivatives data shows a considerable short-term reward from telephone call (buy) options that is fueling even more bullish bets for next week.

The views and opinions expressed hither are solely those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves gamble. Y'all should carry your own research when making a decision.